For much of the past week, we’ve been hoping for one model’s predicted path for Ian that would take it further away from Florida’s west coast. In tonight’s 11pm update, the Euro and American models are starting to show some agreement. Here are some observations from Denis Phillips and other Tampa Bay weather experts. Denis’ update tonight at 11 began with two sobering words: “Not good.”

• Another shift east tonight...

  Not good. The track of Ian continues to work toward the coast. Regardless of whether or not the winds begin to weaken somewhat during approach, this track will create a major surge issue for people living along the coast. We're on NOW on ABC Action News with the latest. pic.twitter.com/VXtvh2TGAp

  — Denis Phillips (@DenisPhillipsWx) September 26, 2022

• Be ready to take action.

  Gotta tell you, the 0Z GFS is coming in very close to the Euro. I have little doubt the NHC brings that track even more East at 11. Without exception, the SURGE is the major issue here. If you live on the water, do not underestimate this storm. If they say evacuate, do so. pic.twitter.com/e6HD7CPxQl

  — Denis Phillips (@DenisPhillipsWx) September 26, 2022

• The next phase begins...

  Remember that model spread? It's about gone. Confidence in forecast increases when model spread decreases. Now we fine tune track/intensity/impacts. #Ian pic.twitter.com/hM6v9TJ46Z

  — Paul Dellegatto⚡️FOX (@PaulFox13) September 26, 2022

• Take advantage of the time we have...

  There is still time to prepare for #Ian tomorrow and possibly the first half of Tuesday, but conditions could deteriorate as early as Tuesday evening. Weather conditions could then continue to worsen by Wednesday and Thursday as Ian approaches the #Florida peninsula. pic.twitter.com/Ol72n8J1yC

  — NWS Tampa Bay (@NWSTampaBay) September 26, 2022

• Pinellas residents need to stay alert...

  Pinellas County, make sure you know your evacuation zone and you know where the hurricane shelters are located. No evacuations right now but we will likely get them tomorrow. https://t.co/9TDiyLDs0f @10TampaBay pic.twitter.com/FieWgdCKkL

  — Meteorologist Grant Gilmore (@GrantGilmoreWX) September 25, 2022

• If they say to go, go.

  11:00 pm track nudged to the east. I will be candid with you, if this track, at the intensity indicated, verifies, then we are in for a very very rough time. If you are told to evacuate. Do it. #Ian pic.twitter.com/tYH3WMew4O

  — Paul Dellegatto⚡️FOX (@PaulFox13) September 26, 2022

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