Meteorologist Denis Phillips Explains NOAA Hurricane Forecast
The NOAA Hurricane Forecast was released, and it predicts an extraordinarily active hurricane season for 2024.
This is the first forecast of the season put out by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) looking at the Atlantic hurricane season. The NOAA report says to expect an “above average” hurricane season. What does “above average” mean? It mean, from a numerical storm standpoint, 17 to 25 named storms, 8 to 13 hurricanes, and 4 to 7 major hurricanes. A major hurricane is defined as Cat 3 or higher.
If any of this sound alarming to you, don’t fret. On the MJ Morning Show we caught up with MJ’s buddy and Chief Meteorologist for ABC Action News, Denis Phillips.
Denis shed light on the NOAA forecast explaining, “These long range forecasts are pretty much useless. At the end of the day, it’s all about landfall. And no one in the industry is able to make predictions about any spot that a storm will make landfall beyond 7 to 10 days out.”
Denis also described the typical patterns of the storms by looking at it from month to month. June is more active, but we generally don’t see the more devastating storms. July is quiet. It picks up in mid August, and then we see quiet a few storms in September.
The reason NOAA is putting it out there that it’s going to be a very active season is because of the warm ocean temperatures in the Atlantic. Dr. Bill Grey came up with a system to make predictions for hurricanes. He used to teach at Colorado State University, and he figured out there was a relationship between El Nino and the number of storms each season.
Denis isn’t a fan of putting people in a position to feel alarmed or scared about the upcoming season because it doesn’t do anything to prepare people for the season coming up.
The big takeaway is don’t panic but be prepared (aka Rule #7). It starts June 1 and doesn’t end until November 30.
5 Things You Should Have Before Hurricane Season Starts
Empty Sand Bags
Remember when everyone was scrambling all over Pinellas and Hillsborough counties looking for sand bags? Most pick-up locations were only allowing people to pick up 2-3 bags per person, which is probably not enough to surround your house/belongings.
BBGI
If you order these empty sandbags on Amazon now, you should have them by next week. It will make your life a lot easier to just drive to your nearest beach or causeway and fill the bags up that way.
(Photo by Joe Raedle/Getty Images)
Battery Powered Fan
We all know how crappy it is to lose power in the middle of a hurricane. In some cases, you may not know when it will be restored. Amazon has this really cool battery powered camping lantern with a fan for only $20. Reviews say that 1 set of D batteries lasted them over 10 hours.
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Footwear
If you live in Florida and don’t have a decent pair of rain boots, now is your time to get a pair. If the thought of gross storm water touching your skin freaks you out, you should grab a pair of these knee high waterproof boots.
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Honorary Mention: Board Games/Deck of Cards/Coloring Books
This one may seem obvious, which is why we made it an honorary mention in case it does slip your mind. Remember how bored you were when you lost power from Ian? Some board games, deck of cards, or coloring books should help you pass the time, without killing your phone battery.
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